2024 Excavator Industry: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist, Domestic Sales Rebound and Exports Remain Stable

With the gradual effect of policies and the continuous improvement of the market environment, the excavator industry in 2024 is showing a positive recovery trend. Although the international situation remains severe and complex, China's excavator industry demonstrates strong competitiveness in both domestic and overseas markets by virtue of its overall advantages in technology, products, and services in the construction machinery sector.

According to the latest data, in September 2024, major excavator manufacturers sold a total of 15,831 sets of various excavator products, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. This growth was mainly driven by the strong performance of the domestic market. In September, domestic sales reached 7,610 units, up 21.5% year-on-year, indicating that domestic demand for excavators is rebounding rapidly under the dual effects of policy support and improved market conditions. Meanwhile, export sales fell by 2.51% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared with previous periods, showing that China's excavators remain highly competitive in the international market.

For the whole year to date, from January to September 2024, major excavator manufacturers sold a total of 147,381 units, down 0.96% year-on-year. Despite a slight decline in overall sales, the domestic market performed brilliantly. Domestic sales from January to September reached 73,945 units, an increase of 8.62% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in the domestic excavator market. Although export sales decreased by 9.04% year-on-year, the performance is still commendable given the complexity and uncertainty of the international situation.

In terms of sales structure, domestic sales accounted for 48.07% of total sales in September, almost equal to export sales. This shows that driven by the recovery of the domestic market, the proportion of domestic excavator sales is gradually rising. From January to September, domestic sales accounted for 50.17% of total sales, slightly higher than the 49.83% of export sales, further confirming the strong performance of the domestic market.

Looking ahead, with the introduction and implementation of a series of policies, the excavator industry is expected to embrace broader development space. Lan Fo'an, Minister of Finance, recently pointed out that a relatively large-scale debt quota will be added at one time to replace local government implicit debt stock, so as to further support localities in defusing debt risks. The implementation of this policy will help enhance the financial capacity of local governments and thus boost investment in infrastructure and other fields. Meanwhile, in the real estate sector, the use of local government special bonds, special funds, tax policies and other tools will help stabilize the property market. The implementation of these policies is expected to drive the recovery of construction starts in infrastructure and real estate, further boosting excavator demand.

Although the international situation remains severe and complex, China's excavator industry can still maintain high competitiveness in the global market thanks to its overall advantages in technology, products and services. Exports are expected to remain at a high level in the period to come.

In summary, the 2024 excavator industry features both opportunities and challenges. Driven by policy support and improved market conditions, domestic sales growth is expected to continue to rebound; supported by overall industrial advantages, exports will also remain at a high level. Overall, opportunities outweigh risks, and the excavator industry is expected to embrace a brighter development prospect.